Lazy

Hello all,

I've been writing a few pieces for Checkerboard Collective which explains the silence over here. Please check out my stuff there because obviously no one else will...

Later.

Weekend Predictions

Bit under the weather so I'll keep things simple this weekend:

Aston Villa v Wolves 1-1

Blackburn v Blackpool 3-2

Everton v Fulham 1-0

Manchester United v Bolton 2-1

Stoke v Newcastle United 2-0

Tottenham v West Ham 3-1

West Brom v Arsenal 0-2

Wigan v Birmingham 2-2

Chelsea v Manchester City 2-1

Sunderland v Liverpool 2-1

Weekend Flutter

Just before I get some sweet shut eye, here are my picks for the weekend.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal
Hard not to take United at evens against weakened opposition at Old Trafford. Even if it is Arsenal. And even if it is the FA Cup quarter finals. Most bookies now have United at odds-on so I'm glad I jumped on when I did. Hard to say whether it will be over or under 2.5 goals. Given all the key players missing I think it will be a close match and under 2.5 goals but haven't put anything on it.

Cagliari vs. Udinese
I'm going for high flying Udinese at 1.9 for over 2.5 goals. Seems a steal compared to Racing & Football Outlook's calculation of 1.57. Despite sneaking past bottom of the table Bari one nil last weekend I think they'll be on the offensive again away from home. For Cagliari, last week was their first home clean sheet since October and obviously I'm betting against something similar happening.

Midweek Premier League Preview

Everton vs. Birmingham City

The home side have had a bit of a resurgence as of late (not including the Cup capitulation to Reading). They've have seen their injury woes lessened and won two on the trot. An inversion of sorts, Birmingham have lost two on the trot and have a serious relegation battle on their hands. Simply because I don't think either team will extend their record to three consecutive wins/loses, I'm predicting a 1-1 draw. I calculate under 2.5 goals at about evens but the bookies are selling at around 1.70 so we know their prediction.

United's Away Form Conundrum

Upset at United's away form this year? Get out your green and gold scarves!!!

Three defeats in Manchester United's last four away matches and its that time again – green and gold scarves, crisis talk and knee-jerk radio call-in punditry. Flipping through Philippe Auclair's fantastic biography of Eric Cantona and delving back into my own memories of that pre-Treble Manchester United side, however, gave food for thought on the current team's away form in the league this year.

That mid-nineties United side bullied their way to success in the Premiership with the best away record for each of the first nine seasons of the Premier League era. In the subsequent ten seasons they've topped the away table three times and only one of those occasions lead to a league title. On the face of it, the statistics suggest United now face more competitive opponents than two decades ago – Chelsea's transfer policy and Arsenal's consistency would confirm this – but is there a deeper, underlining reason for their poor away form this year?

A closer look at the statistics might not show much of a decline – United took 36, 40, 34, and 42 points away from home during the previous four seasons – an average of 2 points per match. Three of those seasons saw United score over 30 goals away from home with goal differences of +17, +14, +18 and +22. Even if Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool managed better away records during various seasons United still claimed the title three times over that period. United's opponents might have performed better away from home, but they still couldn't manage to perform better overall.

On one hand this year is not much different. Despite having only the fourth best away form they top the table with two months to go in the title chase. On the other hand they have conceded 21 goals after 15 matches – last year they allowed only 16 away goals in total – and have managed an average of only 1.33 points per match away from Old Trafford.

Much of the blame has been placed on Johnny Evans. United's poor start to the campaign, particularly away from home, was hampered by Rio Ferdinand's absence through injury. Evans featured in all three of their high scoring draws to kick off the season – games at Fulham, Everton and Bolton. The matches at Craven Cottage and Goodison Park both featured rare late equalizers. United conceded seven goals in those first three away matches – almost half their average total from the previous four seasons. Since those three high scoring draws Evans failed to start away from home until United's first loss of the season to Wolves last month.

Certainly Evan's poor form and defensive frailties in the absence of the Ferdinand/Vidic partnership have hurt United's away form this year. But looking at their recent form on the continent begs the question. They haven't conceded an away goal in this year's Champions League; letting in only one goal in seven matches. How can a side that successful away in Europe struggle away from home in the league?

In 2006/07 Champions League season United lost four away ties – Copenhagen, Celtic, Roma and Milan. Not including the 2009 final, they have lost only once since – to a stoppage time Ivan Olic winner last year in Munich. During that time United have kept thirteen clean sheets and allowed 0.48 goals per match.

United's success away in Europe has featured numerous defensive pairings, so its hard to blame the Ferdinand/Vidic partnership exclusively for their league away form. Against Wolfsburg in 2009 Carrick, Fletcher and Evra formed a makeshift defensive trio to hold the then German champions to a single goal in a 3-1 victory. The stats, at least, make one think it might be tactics and not necessarily personnel responsible.

Its obvious Ferguson has adapted well to the Champions League; appearances in the later knockout stages considered a given these days. This was not always the case. Granted the pre-Treble side with Cantona suffered from UEFA's “foreigners” rule - meaning Welsh, Scotch and Irish players were limited in team selection – but it still took Ferguson years to transform the most consistently successful away side in the Premiership into a good side away in Europe.

The problem now seems to have come full circle. Tactically aware, able to sit back and absorb pressure on the continent, United seem to have forgotten how to attack and strangle their hosts in the league. Their recent defeat to Chelsea was significant not only for the points dropped but also for showcasing a side, for half the match at least, that looked like it wanted to win away from home.

Far too many times, espcially in the wake of the departure of Ronaldo and Tevez, United have been content to rely on their host's hospitality than really going for the match. Fans will certainly cite the lack of a fiery midfield engine ala Bryan Robson or Roy Keane. Although few, if any, top Premiership teams currently feature a midfield dynamo in that mold, there is truth to the belief that United's current crop of young midfielders are more proficient than creative. On a number of occasions they have relied on the vision of veterans Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs to unlock defenses. Yet it's Ferguson's coaching and tactics that have formed these younger players. Anderson, as an example, came to the club with the reputation as a marauding attacking midfielder but has subsequently often performed in a more conservative holding role for United.

In truth the reasons for United's poor away form this year probably stem both from personnel and tactics. Ferguson now prefers, or simply reverts to, a European style away from home, but in the absence of Ferdinand and Vidic United don't have world class centre-backs to adhere to that plan in league play. Also Premiership sides simply do not behave in the same manner as European sides do. Marseille were themselves cautious and conservative against United in their Round of 16 first leg in a way Wolves, Chelsea and Liverpool were never going to be back in England. Having conquered Europe, Ferguson needs to rediscover how to conquer England.

Monday Preview

Short article on Manchester United's away form coming soon. No apologies for the number of United articles recently. I do watch every single one of their matches so it shouldn't be a surprise.

Blackpool vs. Chelsea

Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell are suspended and I just can't see Blackpool getting anything out of this match. I calculate Chelsea to win at 1.62 - more generous than RFO at 1.85 but far greater than the bookies at 1.30.

I also think the match will go over 2.5 goals and it wouldn't surprise me to see Chelsea win to nil. Bookies though are offering over 2.5 goals at around 1.44 which is way under my own estimate of 1.72.

So although I'm not laying down any money, I'm guessing Chelsea away win and over 2.5 goals.

The Weekend Preview

Trust me, I know what I'm doing...

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

After their blistering encounter at Stamford Bridge midweek, Manchester United face another tough away day at Anfield. Amidst all the discussion of refereeing decisions and less than clinical finishing from United, it has been lost to most critics that Chelsea simply wanted the match more, espcially in the second period. United, a goal up, looked satisfied to slow the pace down and even with the scores leveled looked pleased to leave with a point. Given the upcoming matches at Anfield and the Emirates a point away at Chelsea would have suited United. Chelsea, however, had no reason to settle and it showed. While all the talk is about getting back into the title fight, they have a real fight on for a Champions League spot and they played with true purpose in the second half.

United who haven't been the best away from home this year now face another tough task at Anfield. Liverpool might be lingering in sixth but their home form is what has kept them in the hunt for a European place. Only Spurs and Sunday's opponents United have fewer home loses this year. United are also missing their usual centre back pairing of Vidic and Ferdinand.

I expect a slower match than Tuesday's and for both sides to score. While United might again be satisfied with a draw there is the possibility that Arsenal will have overhauled their lead against Sunderland on Saturday afternoon. I'm guessing a 1-1 draw, but would surprised if Liverpool lose given their home form and United's backline.

Juventus vs. AC Milan

The Rosseneri took the first step to the league title with a win over Napoli on Monday. While Napoli did nothing to put up a fight, failing to register a single shot on target, Milan can take comfort in the form of Alexander Pato. Although with Allegri not starting the young Brazilian in previous matches it might be more trouble in squad selection. However after his second half performance against Napoli, culminating in a splendid goal – a curling effort from outside the box – it would be shocking if he didn't keep his starting spot against Juventus on Saturday.

Juventus, who a couple weeks ago defeated a listless Inter, have since lost away to Lecce and at home to Bologna. The latter result indicative of their season – they've lost four times and conceded twenty one goals at home. Milan, on the other hand, have lost only once on their travels and conceded a paltry ten goals away from home.

At home though Juventus have showed some grit in the big matches this season; Udinese the only side above them to take all three points at the Stadio Olimpico. It probably won't be a very exciting match given Milan's defensive record away, but a win would take them into their midweek European match with Spurs and next month's derby against Inter with some confidence.

Hannover vs. Bayern Munich

Having lost two home games in a row, Dortmund in the league and Shalke in the Cup, Bayern are on the verge of crisis just when things were beginning to look good after the winter break. They currently trail their hosts Hannover by two points in the hunt for third place, the final spot for Champions League qualification. Bayern are poor away this year, dropping points on eight occasions and no side has won more home matches, eight, than Hannover.

The match promises to be exciting and high scoring. If Bayern fail to win their confidence could unravel ahead of the all important Champions League second leg tie against Inter.

Marseille vs. Lille

Last week's draw with Lyon did Lille no favours. OM took all three points in their match and three more would see them overhaul Lille in the table and possibly go top depending on Rennes result at Montpellier.

A tight match might go in Marseille's favour as they have the meanest defense in the league behind Rennes and were able to rest midweek while Lille progressed in the French Cup.

The Weekend Flutter

After the failure of last weekend, thanks Sven, its a surprise to everyone we're back for another battering.

Hannover home win or draw against Bayern Munich at 2.11

Bayern look shattered after loses Dortmund and Shalke. 2.11 seem generous odds that they won't get past Hannover.

Birmingham City home win against West Brom at 2.24

I've bet against West Brom two weeks running and they've managed two late comebacks, but I don't think they'll repeat that feat here. Birmingham should be on a high from their League Cup win and generally the winners of that tournament show improved form in the League. They've also got a real relegation fight on their hands and as worries about club's finances have surfaced they can't afford to slip any closer to the drop.

Brest home win against Bordeaux at 2.65

Bordeaux have been terrible away from home this year, their last match producing a 1-5 drubbing by Lorient. Again, good odds against a team that's won only three times on the road and conceded eighteen times in the process.

Freiburg home win against Werder Bremen at 2.55

Bremen are tinkering on the edge of the relegation zone and have lost seven times away from home. They've only scored nine goals and conceded and incredible thirty one times. Freiburg have had a good season and are still in the hunt for a Europea League spot. Again, good odds.

RFO's banker of Norwich City, Wrexham, Darlington at 4.16

After going February undefeated I'm guessing the Racing & Football Outlook's banker picks will fail on my first try. Oh well...

Weekend Round Up

An inverted Diego Forlan?

Wigan Athletic 0 Manchester United 4

The final result flattered the visiting league leaders, to say the least. A solitary goal from Javier Hernandez was all the separated the sides in a lackluster first half. United's passed the ball poorly, as they've been prone to do away from home this season, and Wigan had a number of good chances. Van der Sar was in good form, though, and as Wigan pushed forward in the second half they left their defence exposed. United scored again through Hernandez - “a natural goalscorer” a common theme amongst pundits – and then from Rooney and Fabio for a relatively easy Saturday afternoon.

Almost more interesting than the match itself was a short shot of United's players in the stands. Giggs, Obertan and Bebe sat behind Sir Bobby Charlton. While the two United legends watch attentively the youngsters fiddled with their mobiles; Obertan even wearing headphones. Its not surprising the pair failed to break down non-league Crawley Town in the FA Cup last weekend with attitudes like that.

Bayern Munich 1 Borussia Dortmund 3

All the prematch talk was about Bayern. They'd won late against Inter in the midweek and had Robben in fine form after demolishing Mainz and Hoffenheim. Dortmund, not coming off the winter break in the best of form, had the midweek to rest, however and could bury Bayern's hopes of retaining the league title.

The first half set off at a frantic pace, both sides going all out. Dortmund went ahead against the run of play through Lucas Barios but Bayern shortly equalized with a debut goal from new signing Gustavo. Only two minutes later Dortmund retook the lead with as Barios produced a great run deep into the Bayern half before Gotze laid off a pass for Sahin to finish with a curling effort from outside the box.

Bayern tried to fight back but whatever chances they fashioned were snuffed out by Mitchell Langerak, the 22 year old Australian keeper making his league debut in stunning form.

With the title all but sealed the big question is what does the future hold for this talented Dortmund side. How long with Jurgen Klopp stay as manager and how long will his talented young players stay? Against Bayern Klopp fielded a team averaging 22.3 years old. Sadly its the norm for young talent in the Bundesliga to gravitate to Bavaria. Can Dortmund build on the success this year and break the flash-in-the-pan title wins of Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Werder Bremen? And how will Klopp's break neck attacking football play out on the big stage in Europe?

Lille 1 Lyon 1

A game which started with two early goals quickly descended into a stalemate. With both sides coming off midweek European games, Lyon's arguably the tougher of the two, and with so much at stake with Rennes winning on Saturday and Marseille on Sunday, the draw comes without too much surprise. Although Lyon have been prone to conceding away from home Lille failed to put Lyon under much pressure in the final third. The pitch was in terrible shape and certainly didn't help Lille's fast counter attacking style. In the end Lyon probably deserved to win but for a number of magnificent saves from Mickael Landreau.

So, in the tightest title race in Europe, Lille and Rennes top the table with OM one point adrift, PSG two points off and Lyon four points below. Next weekend sees another title clash with OM host Lille while Rennes travel to Montpellier, who just beat Lille 1-0 a week ago.

Palermo 0 Udinese 7

Truth be told, I stopped watching after 35 minutes. 3-0 up, away from home, and Udinese looked like they were playing a pub team. All credit to Sanchez and Di Natale, who were in superb form, but this contest ended early and just descended into a farce.

I will note that Sanchez's second goal brought a smile to my face as he did a few step-overs and rounded the keeper to slot into an empty net. Most players these days take a shot early and bend the ball around the keeper, but Sanchez's style brought back the hey-day of Serie A in the 80's and 90's and not just a hint of a couple Roberto Baggio goals. It'll be interesting to see where he ends up next season as it'd be a shock for Udinese to hold onto him in this kind of form.

The Weekend Flutter Continued...

Obviously Part 1 fell flat on it face. Not the best of debuts. But hey, you win some and you lose some. Lessons learnt all around. Think positive. That kind of nonsense.

Anyway, here are tomorrow's picks:

Stoke City vs. West Brom

Stoke are usually good at home and I still don't trust Roy Hodgson to have sorted out all of WBA's defensive problems. I'm backing them at 1.90 to win but know it'll end in a dull 1-1 draw.

Milan vs. Napoli

This should be a close match between first and second in the league. I picked Napoli on the handicap (+1) at 1.84 as I don't think Milan will win by more than a goal.

The Weekend Flutter Pt. 1

Am I really backing this man?

Saturday Edition

Everton vs. Sunderland

Although Everton have just knocked Chelsea out of the FA Cup I imagine they'll still struggle in the league. Sunderland have had a good season and Steve Bruce, having recently extended his contract with club, has built a consistent side. I'm backing Sunderland double chance (win or draw) at 2.02.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Blackpool

We all know Blackpool leak goals as often as they score them but I think Mick McCarthy has his side well enough organized at home to keep a low scoreline. Blackpool are also missing captain Charlie Adam. He's obviously crucial to the side. Under 2.5 Goals at 2.20. Odds were at 2.35 but I moved too slow.

Mallorca vs. Barcelona

The longest shot of the day. Barcelona are missing Puyol, Xavi, and Valdes but most importantly Mallorca are disciplined and perform well enough at home to the top sides to keep this contest close. I like Mallorca double chance at 3.00 and Under 2.5 Goals at 2.10. Good luck? Will need it.

Stade Rennes vs. RC Lens

Rennes, second place and in good form, take on Lens, second bottom and floundering. At 1.65 Rennes look good for the win.

Leicester City vs. Coventry City

Steadied under Sven-Göran Eriksson and hunting for a play-off spot Leicester City look a safe bet at home against a Coventry side that hasn't won away since November. City win at 1.50.

Rennes and Leicester all-up at 2.48

See above – two favoured sides at home.

Match of the Day

Bayern Munich vs. Borrisia Dortmund

Humdinger and probably the highlight of the weekend. A loss for Bayern and the nails will be well and truly nailed in the coffin for their title hopes. Dortmund have had a slip blip since the winter break but are still ten points clear and had no midweek matches while Bayern traveled to Milan. Too tight to put money on but too exciting to miss watching.

Better late than never...

Times have changed. Ten years ago this would not be happening: 3:00pm GMT kickoff on a FA Cup weekend and punters have packed Hong Kong bars to watch Australia and Japan contest the Asian Cup Final. Prior to the World Cup 2002 in Japan/South Korea even most football enthusiasts would be hard pressed to name an Asian footballer outside of Hidetoshi Nakata.

Since the host nations shocked the footballing world in 2002 they've given us the household names like Park Ji-sung and Shunsuke Nakamura, as well as emerging talent in Cha Du-ri, Shinji Kagawa and Keisuke Honda (not to mention adding the talent of the Australian sub-continent to the Asian Federation in 2005).

As the standard of players has increased East Asia has overhauled the Middle East as the stronger footballing force in the region. Saturday night's final was only the second occasion that a team from the Middle East failed to make the final – the other, in 2004, when China lost to Japan in Beijing. The failure of the Middle Eastern teams, not only in this Asian Cup but also at the World Cup and in World Cup qualifying, is a watershed for Asian football. Although, to be fair, Japan's rise is no recent flash in the pan – they had won three of the past five finals prior to the 2011 final in Doha.

While Japan have seen their most famous sons Nakata and Nakamura call it day with their international careers, Australia have been propelled in this Asian Cup by veterans of their golden generation – Mark Schwarzer, Tim Cahill, Brett Emerton, Lucas Neil and, in particularly good form, Harry Kewell. For these players, all in their 30's, the final was a last chance for international honours. It would be very surprising to see any of them, should they qualify, in Brazil 2014.

Leading up to the final things certainly looked positive for the Australians. They had cruised into the final, defeating Uzbekistan 6-0 in the semi-finals and Japan's young playmaker Shinji Kagawa would miss the final due to a fractured foot. Most of the smaller Asian teams had found it a tough task going up against the physically stronger Australians. Yet the only team to really match the Australians physically, South Korea, were knocked out by Japan in the semi-final – a match so open and entertaining it threatened to dwarf the final. In the end it nearly did.

While the open, end to end play extravaganza in the semi-final showed off both Korean and Japanese technical prowess, the openness of the final was due to the frantic and chaotic pace of the match. Without Kagawa pulling the strings in the midfield the Japanese had difficulty settling down and controlling the match and had to wait until the second half for their only real chance in regulation – a pinpoint cross from Yuto Nagatomo and a great header from Shinji Okazaki that just sneaked outside the post.

The Australians had the lion's share of goal scoring opportunities, and had Harry Kewell kept the same form he'd shown earlier in the tournament they would have run out quite easy winners. The best chance coming in the second half after Kewell headed the ball past the last defender but he failed to convert the subsequent one on one chance against the Japanese keeper Kawashima.

As the match progressed to the end of regulation and into stoppage time the Australians looks visibly tired – strange considering it was the Japanese who had to go all the way to penalties to secure their place in the final. Uncharacteristically slack on defense, the Australians allowed substitute Tadanari Lee to sneak unmarked into the area and finish a gorgeous volley with just ten minutes left in extra time. The cross again provided by one of the standout players of the knockout rounds left-back Nagatomo.

Japan's win, while adding to their recent domination of the event over the past twenty years also heralds the dawn of a hopeful era. Kagawa is 21 years old, captain Hasebe is 27 and Honda and Nagatomo are 24 – all already feature in the top European leagues (Nagatomo just finalised a loan deal to Inter Milan a few hours ago) and should be in their prime for the next World Cup. This summer the team will head to Argentina for the Copa América as one of two specially invited nations outside the CONMBOL region. The other nation, Mexico, will send their U-23 Olympic team reinforced with five senior players but Japan has yet to announce who they will send. While matching a full strength side against top South American opposition presents a fantastic opportunity for the side, many of the European players will be in desperate need of rest after a non-stop year at the World Cup, Asian Cup and regular club season. Still, whoever features, the experience will certainly help as the young side looks to adapt itself to competing against top international opposition.

Unfortunately as the Japanese are ascending, the Australians are at the end of their golden generation. For the core of their team, veterans of the Premier League for most of the 2000's, this was their last major international competition. At the moment we haven't seen the quality of Cahill and Kewell coming through the ranks. Qualifying for the next World Cup will be hugely significant for the national football side. Should they fail to make it to the finals in 2014 Australian football could find itself floundering in a nation already preoccupied on other sports.