Lazy

Hello all,

I've been writing a few pieces for Checkerboard Collective which explains the silence over here. Please check out my stuff there because obviously no one else will...

Later.

Weekend Predictions

Bit under the weather so I'll keep things simple this weekend:

Aston Villa v Wolves 1-1

Blackburn v Blackpool 3-2

Everton v Fulham 1-0

Manchester United v Bolton 2-1

Stoke v Newcastle United 2-0

Tottenham v West Ham 3-1

West Brom v Arsenal 0-2

Wigan v Birmingham 2-2

Chelsea v Manchester City 2-1

Sunderland v Liverpool 2-1

Weekend Flutter

Just before I get some sweet shut eye, here are my picks for the weekend.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal
Hard not to take United at evens against weakened opposition at Old Trafford. Even if it is Arsenal. And even if it is the FA Cup quarter finals. Most bookies now have United at odds-on so I'm glad I jumped on when I did. Hard to say whether it will be over or under 2.5 goals. Given all the key players missing I think it will be a close match and under 2.5 goals but haven't put anything on it.

Cagliari vs. Udinese
I'm going for high flying Udinese at 1.9 for over 2.5 goals. Seems a steal compared to Racing & Football Outlook's calculation of 1.57. Despite sneaking past bottom of the table Bari one nil last weekend I think they'll be on the offensive again away from home. For Cagliari, last week was their first home clean sheet since October and obviously I'm betting against something similar happening.

Midweek Premier League Preview

Everton vs. Birmingham City

The home side have had a bit of a resurgence as of late (not including the Cup capitulation to Reading). They've have seen their injury woes lessened and won two on the trot. An inversion of sorts, Birmingham have lost two on the trot and have a serious relegation battle on their hands. Simply because I don't think either team will extend their record to three consecutive wins/loses, I'm predicting a 1-1 draw. I calculate under 2.5 goals at about evens but the bookies are selling at around 1.70 so we know their prediction.

United's Away Form Conundrum

Upset at United's away form this year? Get out your green and gold scarves!!!

Three defeats in Manchester United's last four away matches and its that time again – green and gold scarves, crisis talk and knee-jerk radio call-in punditry. Flipping through Philippe Auclair's fantastic biography of Eric Cantona and delving back into my own memories of that pre-Treble Manchester United side, however, gave food for thought on the current team's away form in the league this year.

That mid-nineties United side bullied their way to success in the Premiership with the best away record for each of the first nine seasons of the Premier League era. In the subsequent ten seasons they've topped the away table three times and only one of those occasions lead to a league title. On the face of it, the statistics suggest United now face more competitive opponents than two decades ago – Chelsea's transfer policy and Arsenal's consistency would confirm this – but is there a deeper, underlining reason for their poor away form this year?

A closer look at the statistics might not show much of a decline – United took 36, 40, 34, and 42 points away from home during the previous four seasons – an average of 2 points per match. Three of those seasons saw United score over 30 goals away from home with goal differences of +17, +14, +18 and +22. Even if Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool managed better away records during various seasons United still claimed the title three times over that period. United's opponents might have performed better away from home, but they still couldn't manage to perform better overall.

On one hand this year is not much different. Despite having only the fourth best away form they top the table with two months to go in the title chase. On the other hand they have conceded 21 goals after 15 matches – last year they allowed only 16 away goals in total – and have managed an average of only 1.33 points per match away from Old Trafford.

Much of the blame has been placed on Johnny Evans. United's poor start to the campaign, particularly away from home, was hampered by Rio Ferdinand's absence through injury. Evans featured in all three of their high scoring draws to kick off the season – games at Fulham, Everton and Bolton. The matches at Craven Cottage and Goodison Park both featured rare late equalizers. United conceded seven goals in those first three away matches – almost half their average total from the previous four seasons. Since those three high scoring draws Evans failed to start away from home until United's first loss of the season to Wolves last month.

Certainly Evan's poor form and defensive frailties in the absence of the Ferdinand/Vidic partnership have hurt United's away form this year. But looking at their recent form on the continent begs the question. They haven't conceded an away goal in this year's Champions League; letting in only one goal in seven matches. How can a side that successful away in Europe struggle away from home in the league?

In 2006/07 Champions League season United lost four away ties – Copenhagen, Celtic, Roma and Milan. Not including the 2009 final, they have lost only once since – to a stoppage time Ivan Olic winner last year in Munich. During that time United have kept thirteen clean sheets and allowed 0.48 goals per match.

United's success away in Europe has featured numerous defensive pairings, so its hard to blame the Ferdinand/Vidic partnership exclusively for their league away form. Against Wolfsburg in 2009 Carrick, Fletcher and Evra formed a makeshift defensive trio to hold the then German champions to a single goal in a 3-1 victory. The stats, at least, make one think it might be tactics and not necessarily personnel responsible.

Its obvious Ferguson has adapted well to the Champions League; appearances in the later knockout stages considered a given these days. This was not always the case. Granted the pre-Treble side with Cantona suffered from UEFA's “foreigners” rule - meaning Welsh, Scotch and Irish players were limited in team selection – but it still took Ferguson years to transform the most consistently successful away side in the Premiership into a good side away in Europe.

The problem now seems to have come full circle. Tactically aware, able to sit back and absorb pressure on the continent, United seem to have forgotten how to attack and strangle their hosts in the league. Their recent defeat to Chelsea was significant not only for the points dropped but also for showcasing a side, for half the match at least, that looked like it wanted to win away from home.

Far too many times, espcially in the wake of the departure of Ronaldo and Tevez, United have been content to rely on their host's hospitality than really going for the match. Fans will certainly cite the lack of a fiery midfield engine ala Bryan Robson or Roy Keane. Although few, if any, top Premiership teams currently feature a midfield dynamo in that mold, there is truth to the belief that United's current crop of young midfielders are more proficient than creative. On a number of occasions they have relied on the vision of veterans Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs to unlock defenses. Yet it's Ferguson's coaching and tactics that have formed these younger players. Anderson, as an example, came to the club with the reputation as a marauding attacking midfielder but has subsequently often performed in a more conservative holding role for United.

In truth the reasons for United's poor away form this year probably stem both from personnel and tactics. Ferguson now prefers, or simply reverts to, a European style away from home, but in the absence of Ferdinand and Vidic United don't have world class centre-backs to adhere to that plan in league play. Also Premiership sides simply do not behave in the same manner as European sides do. Marseille were themselves cautious and conservative against United in their Round of 16 first leg in a way Wolves, Chelsea and Liverpool were never going to be back in England. Having conquered Europe, Ferguson needs to rediscover how to conquer England.

Monday Preview

Short article on Manchester United's away form coming soon. No apologies for the number of United articles recently. I do watch every single one of their matches so it shouldn't be a surprise.

Blackpool vs. Chelsea

Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell are suspended and I just can't see Blackpool getting anything out of this match. I calculate Chelsea to win at 1.62 - more generous than RFO at 1.85 but far greater than the bookies at 1.30.

I also think the match will go over 2.5 goals and it wouldn't surprise me to see Chelsea win to nil. Bookies though are offering over 2.5 goals at around 1.44 which is way under my own estimate of 1.72.

So although I'm not laying down any money, I'm guessing Chelsea away win and over 2.5 goals.

The Weekend Preview

Trust me, I know what I'm doing...

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

After their blistering encounter at Stamford Bridge midweek, Manchester United face another tough away day at Anfield. Amidst all the discussion of refereeing decisions and less than clinical finishing from United, it has been lost to most critics that Chelsea simply wanted the match more, espcially in the second period. United, a goal up, looked satisfied to slow the pace down and even with the scores leveled looked pleased to leave with a point. Given the upcoming matches at Anfield and the Emirates a point away at Chelsea would have suited United. Chelsea, however, had no reason to settle and it showed. While all the talk is about getting back into the title fight, they have a real fight on for a Champions League spot and they played with true purpose in the second half.

United who haven't been the best away from home this year now face another tough task at Anfield. Liverpool might be lingering in sixth but their home form is what has kept them in the hunt for a European place. Only Spurs and Sunday's opponents United have fewer home loses this year. United are also missing their usual centre back pairing of Vidic and Ferdinand.

I expect a slower match than Tuesday's and for both sides to score. While United might again be satisfied with a draw there is the possibility that Arsenal will have overhauled their lead against Sunderland on Saturday afternoon. I'm guessing a 1-1 draw, but would surprised if Liverpool lose given their home form and United's backline.

Juventus vs. AC Milan

The Rosseneri took the first step to the league title with a win over Napoli on Monday. While Napoli did nothing to put up a fight, failing to register a single shot on target, Milan can take comfort in the form of Alexander Pato. Although with Allegri not starting the young Brazilian in previous matches it might be more trouble in squad selection. However after his second half performance against Napoli, culminating in a splendid goal – a curling effort from outside the box – it would be shocking if he didn't keep his starting spot against Juventus on Saturday.

Juventus, who a couple weeks ago defeated a listless Inter, have since lost away to Lecce and at home to Bologna. The latter result indicative of their season – they've lost four times and conceded twenty one goals at home. Milan, on the other hand, have lost only once on their travels and conceded a paltry ten goals away from home.

At home though Juventus have showed some grit in the big matches this season; Udinese the only side above them to take all three points at the Stadio Olimpico. It probably won't be a very exciting match given Milan's defensive record away, but a win would take them into their midweek European match with Spurs and next month's derby against Inter with some confidence.

Hannover vs. Bayern Munich

Having lost two home games in a row, Dortmund in the league and Shalke in the Cup, Bayern are on the verge of crisis just when things were beginning to look good after the winter break. They currently trail their hosts Hannover by two points in the hunt for third place, the final spot for Champions League qualification. Bayern are poor away this year, dropping points on eight occasions and no side has won more home matches, eight, than Hannover.

The match promises to be exciting and high scoring. If Bayern fail to win their confidence could unravel ahead of the all important Champions League second leg tie against Inter.

Marseille vs. Lille

Last week's draw with Lyon did Lille no favours. OM took all three points in their match and three more would see them overhaul Lille in the table and possibly go top depending on Rennes result at Montpellier.

A tight match might go in Marseille's favour as they have the meanest defense in the league behind Rennes and were able to rest midweek while Lille progressed in the French Cup.

The Weekend Flutter

After the failure of last weekend, thanks Sven, its a surprise to everyone we're back for another battering.

Hannover home win or draw against Bayern Munich at 2.11

Bayern look shattered after loses Dortmund and Shalke. 2.11 seem generous odds that they won't get past Hannover.

Birmingham City home win against West Brom at 2.24

I've bet against West Brom two weeks running and they've managed two late comebacks, but I don't think they'll repeat that feat here. Birmingham should be on a high from their League Cup win and generally the winners of that tournament show improved form in the League. They've also got a real relegation fight on their hands and as worries about club's finances have surfaced they can't afford to slip any closer to the drop.

Brest home win against Bordeaux at 2.65

Bordeaux have been terrible away from home this year, their last match producing a 1-5 drubbing by Lorient. Again, good odds against a team that's won only three times on the road and conceded eighteen times in the process.

Freiburg home win against Werder Bremen at 2.55

Bremen are tinkering on the edge of the relegation zone and have lost seven times away from home. They've only scored nine goals and conceded and incredible thirty one times. Freiburg have had a good season and are still in the hunt for a Europea League spot. Again, good odds.

RFO's banker of Norwich City, Wrexham, Darlington at 4.16

After going February undefeated I'm guessing the Racing & Football Outlook's banker picks will fail on my first try. Oh well...